Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
